Welcome to the TMS current mortgage rates blog. There’s some economic news out today, but first, your mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Where are mortgage rates going?
Holding steady
We’ve entered the blackout stage before the FOMC meeting next week. That means it’s slow going from here until Tuesday. If you’re looking for a wild ride, you’ll have to seek that out somewhere else because mortgage rates aren’t going anywhere. There’s very little data out the rest of the week, making it more likely than not that mortgage rates remain where they are. Fortunately, rates are low right now so a pause isn’t the worst thing in the world. The Freddie Mac PMMS comes out tomorrow morning and I expect it will show rates back around 3-year lows. It’s the first PMMS since the May jobs report.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Fed Fund futures
A few weeks ago everyone was talking about how June was back on the table. That largely depended on a strengthening labor market. The shockingly weak May jobs report showed that the labor market is far from strengthening, and now June is now firmly off the table, with an implied probability of 2% from the Fed Fund futures. If June didn’t seem like a sure thing a few weeks ago, July was looking like the next best bet. Before last Friday, it had nearly a 75% chance of happening, and right now, it’s down to 23%. Even September has slipped below a coin flip at 46%. It’s amazing that some Fed officials were saying that they could still see a path for three rate hikes in 2016. December is currently the only meeting with over a 50% chance at 66%.
What does this mean for me?
So far, so good. Mortgage rates are at very accommodative levels right now, making it a great time to purchase a home or refinance your current mortgage. While I don’t see rates spiking anytime in the near future, it’s hard to imagine a realistic scenario where they go much lower. There’s no need to run out to your lender and lock in a rate this very minute, but I do think you’re better off acting sooner rather than later.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Today’s economic data:
Job openings and labor turnover survey
- The Labor Department’s JOLTS report came out this morning and it’s showing that there were 5.788 million job openings in April, up from the 5.670 million in March.
EIA petroleum status report
The weekly change for the week of 6/3/16:
- Crude oil inventories went down 3.2 million barrels
- Gasoline is up 1.0 million barrels
- Distillates are up 1.8 million barrels
10-Year Treasury auction
There will be a 10-year note auction today at 1:00 PM.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Miscellanea:
- Hillary Clinton became the first woman to win a major party’s presidential party’s nomination last night. Bernie Sanders hasn’t given up quite yet, though, as he plans to keep fighting to the Democratic Convention.
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- Janet Yellen speaks
Tuesday:
- Productivity and costs
- 3-Year Treasury auction
Wednesday:
- Job openings and labor turnover survey
- EIA petroleum status report
- 10-Year Treasury auction
Thursday:
- Weekly Jobless Claims
- 30-Year Treasury auction
Friday:
- Consumer Sentiment
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/1thkIyN
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