Welcome to the TMS current mortgage rates blog. There’s some economic data out today, but first, your daily mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Where are mortgage rates going?
Mortgage rates, along with government bonds, are moving higher again today. Markets extremely focused on tomorrow’s Brexit vote, which polls are showing as fairly evenly split right now. In the Eastern U.S., we’ll know the results of the referendum around 2:00 AM on Friday.
During the first part of her two-day testimony yesterday, Janet Yellen said that a Leave vote carried with it some serious uncertainties and risk that could affect not just Britain, but global markets.
There’s no doubt that there will be a serious ripple effect felt by international markets, but it’s up to the Brits to decide if the current conditions imposed by the EU are worth facing potential problems they might encounter.
Janet Yellen did make it clear that she was not offering any political advice for the folks across the pond, but one has to imagine that she’s hoping for a Remain vote. The Fed has a lot to deal with as it is. Adding the fallout from a Brexit into the mix is surely something they would rather avoid.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
10-year yield continues to rise
So far this week, the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury note has been on a steady upward ascent. Monday saw the largest one-day yield increase since May 18, at 5.3 basis points. Then yesterday it rose by another 2.9 basis points. Right now it’s trading at yesterday’s close of 1.71%.
Fed Fund futures unchanged
As expected, the Fed Fund futures haven’t moved much this week. They’re just a few percentage points down from where they were yesterday, possibly due to Janet Yellen’s testimony reinforcing the uncertainties that lie ahead. July is the next meeting on the calendar, and the futures are giving it an 11.9% chance of a rate hike. Looking further out, September, November, and December have an implied probability of a rate hike at 33.1%, 35.8%, and 54.2%, respectively.
What does this mean for me?
Mortgage rates might be moving higher this week but they are still at very accommodative levels. There is a decent bit of risk to rates with the Brexit vote so close on the horizon, meaning that it depends on your personality as to what you should do. If you don’t like risk, then you should probably lock in a rate before Friday. If you like to roll the dice, then feel free to wait it out and see where rates are after the vote.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Today’s economic data:
FHFA House Price Index
Soft data is out from the housing sector, with the FHFA house price index rising only 0.2% in April, compared to the 0.6% that was expected.
Existing Home Sales
Existing home sales in May rose 1.8% to 5.530 million. Year-on-year, existing home sales are only up 4.5%.
Janet Yellen Speaks
Janet Yellen goes before the Senate Banking Committee for her second and final day of testimony.
EIA Petroleum Status Report
For the week of June 16:
- Crude oil dropped 0.9 million barrels
- Gasoline dropped 2.6 million barrels
- Distillates rose 0.8 million barrels
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- Fedspeak
Tuesday:
- Janet Yellen Speaks
Wednesday:
- FHFA House Price Index
- Existing Home Sales
- Janet Yellen Speaks
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
Thursday:
- Jobless Claims
- PMI Manufacturing Index
- New Home Sales
Friday:
- Durable Goods Orders
- Consumer Sentiment
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/28Ni6hY
No comments:
Post a Comment