Happy Friday, and welcome to the TMS current mortgage rates blog. There’s some economic data out today, but first, your daily mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Where are mortgage rates going?
Janet Yellen says rate hike more likely in coming months
Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen gave a speech today at the Jackson Hole Symposium. It’s the biggest monetary policy conference of the year, and investors eagerly tuned in to see if the Yellen would offer any clues about upcoming adjustments to the Federal funds rate.
So did she say anything good? It depends. Yellen said that “In light of the continued solid performance of the labor market and our outlook for economic activity and inflation, I believe the case for an increase in the federal funds rate has strengthened in recent months.” It’s not an incredibly hawkish statement, as it doesn’t specifically mention September, but she is certainly trying to paint the picture of an FOMC that is poised to raise rates.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
The markets are cautiously buying what she is selling. The Fed Fund futures, which had dropped down after poor GDP data was released this morning, have risen back up to where they were all week. That means that September, November, and December have about a 24%, 30%, and 52% chance, respectively. Those aren’t great odds, but it’s a platform for future data to potentially stand on. Next Friday we get the August jobs report, the last major piece of data before the FOMC meeting in mid-September.
The yield on the 10-year U.S. treasury note is currently 1.54%. That’s basically where it’s been all week. Mortgage rates have a strong tendency to follow the 10-year yield wherever it goes, so rates continue to be flat as we head into the weekend.
How have the Fed Fund futures
What does this mean for me?
Mortgage states are continuing to hover about 10 basis points above all time lows. That means that right now is a great time to refinance your current mortgage or lock in a low rate on a purchase for years to come.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Today’s economic data:
GDP is still soft
At an annualized rate of 1.1%, second quarter GDP is not what the Fed ordered. GDP has been sluggish for three straight quarters now. No one was expecting a stellar report, but I imagine that the higher interest rates crowd had their hopes up for something better. The only real positive from the report is the strength in consumer spending, which climbed to 4.4%.
International trade in goods improves
The trade gap came in at $59.3 B for July. That’s an improvement from June’s revised headline number of $64.5 B.
Consumer sentiment is down
Consumer sentiment for August is at 89.8. That’s down from the mid-month reading of 90.4, and is a four-month low. Apparently, Americans have grown a little more pessimistic when it comes to their personal finances this year.
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- Nothing
Tuesday:
- New Home Sales
- Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
Wednesday:
- PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
- Existing Home Sales
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
Thursday:
- Durable Goods Orders
- Jobless Claims
- Consumer Comfort Index
Friday:
- GDP
- International Trade in Goods
- Consumer Sentiment
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/2blZJHk
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