Welcome to the TMS current mortgage rates blog. There’s some economic data out today, but first, your daily mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Where are mortgage rates going?
Freddie Mac has rates flat
It’s Thursday morning past 10am, and that means that the Freddie Mac Private Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) got released. Anyone looking for an entertaining report is going to be sadly disappointed. Mortgage rates, for the most part, didn’t move a smidgeon. The average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage stayed the same at 3.43% (0.6 points); the average rate on a 15-year fixed rate mortgage also remained unchanged from last week’s level at 2.74% (0.5 points); while the average rate on a 5-year ARM was the outlier, moving down one basis point this week to 2.75% (0.4 points).
Usually, the fact that data gets collected for the report earlier on in the week is important to note, but nothing has happened this week so the report is still an accurate portrayal of the mortgage rate picture.
Here is what chief economist at Freddie Mac, Sean Becketti, had to say about the slow week for mortgage rates:
“Treasury yields were little changed from the prior week and the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage held steady at 3.43 percent this week. This marks the ninth consecutive week that mortgage rates have been below 3.5 percent. Markets are erring on the side of caution ahead of the second estimate for second-quarter GDP and Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s speech on Friday.”
Tomorrow
There is definitely a risk that rates will rise after Janet Yellen’s speech tomorrow. No one really knows what she will say, but you can be certain that investors will be parsing every single syllable for clues as to the next rate hike. There’s been a lot of talk lately about September, and everyone wants to know if the Fed Chair is on board.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Fed Fund Futures
As expected, the Fed Fund futures haven’t changed much this week. They are still showing a 24.0% for September, a 30.3% chance for November, and a 56.9% for December. These numbers will almost definitely change after Janet Yellen’s speech tomorrow.
What does this mean for me?
Mortgage rates haven’t moved from their positions last week. Seeing how they’re a mere twelve basis points from all-time lows, I’d say there’s no reason to complain. Anyone who is seeking to refinance their current mortgage or to purchase a home has picked a great time to do so.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Today’s economic data:
Durable goods orders show signs of life
After a weak May and June, new orders saw a month over month change of 4.4% in July. That’s nearly a full percentage point higher than what economists had predicted. What caused the jump? Commercial plane production, along with projects from the Pentagon led the way. Auto production remained flat. Overall, the report is the strongest since last fall, and could potentially point to a resurgence in production.
Jobless claims are down
The number of applications filed for U.S. unemployment benefits for the week of 8/20 came in at 261,000. That’s 1,000 below where it was at last week and slightly below the 265,000 that was expected. The four-week moving average is now at 264,000. The Federal Reserve is certainly keeping a close eye on every bit of labor market data, and will be pleased that jobless claims are on the decline.
Consumer comfort index is strong
The Bloomberg consumer comfort index rose to 45.3 for the week of 8/21. That’s the strongest consumer comfort reading since April 2015. American consumers are apparently feeling fairly confident at the moment, which is a good sign for the economy. The consumer comfort index has now gone up 3.5 points over the past two weeks. That’s the biggest jump since April 2009.
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- Nothing
Tuesday:
- PMI Manufacturing Index Flash
- New Home Sales
- Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
Wednesday:
- Existing Home Sales
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
Thursday:
- Durable Goods Orders
- Jobless Claims
- Consumer Comfort Index
Friday:
- GDP
- International Trade in Goods
- Consumer Sentiment
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/2caQcTt
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