Welcome to the TMS current mortgage rates blog. There’s some economic data out today, but first, your daily mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Where are mortgage rates going?
Mortgage rates are moving slightly lower today. Financial market participants had began to move back into safer assets like government bonds yesterday after the price of oil began to slide. The dip in rates is modest, but after a few days of rising rates the relief is welcome.
If we look toward the yield on the U.S. 10-year treasury note (one of the best indicators of where mortgage rates are headed), we can see that it’s fallen about five basis points in 24-hours. It should be noted that trading volume seems to have caught a bit of the summertime blues, choosing to stay subdued and out of the heat.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Fed Fund Futures
It would make writing this blog easier if I had an inside connection to the Federal Reserve. Then again, sometimes it seems even that wouldn’t help too much with my predictions, although, I’d certainly have more to blog about. But as I do not have any said connection, I’m left to stare at tarot cards, tea cups, and of course–the Fed Fund futures. What we’re getting this morning is a somewhat significant drop in the odds of a rate hike at the next three meetings.
Yesterday, September, November, and December had an 18.0%, 19.7%, and about a 50% chance or a rate hike, respectively. Today all of those have come down about 6-8%. It’s hard to say what exactly caused investors to back off between now and then. The dollar is slightly weaker; oil dropped a tad; the Olympics are on TV… It’s just not clear. All we know is that according to the markets, the chances for rate hikes at those meetings weakened overnight.
What does this mean for me?
Mortgage rates are just above all-time lows. The fact that they’ve been floating up and down around these same levels for over a month now doesn’t change the fact that they are at a level that is very, very low. As I discuss below, mortgage applications are up. A lot of borrowers are coming to the realization that right now there is a unique opportunity to refinance into a very accommodating rate.
Of course, the opportunity is also there for first-time home buyers to lock in a low rate for years down the road. I think that at the very least, you owe it to yourself to at least call and see if these low rates are something you can take advantage of. Most of the time, it only takes a five minute conversation to figure that out.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Today’s economic data:
MBA Mortgage Applications
Mortgage rates are near all-time lows and consumers are catching on. Overall the number of mortgage applications filed this week increased by 7.1%. Purchase applications rose 3.0% and refinance applications rose a full 10.0%. The numbers this week are a sharp return from last week’s negative readings.
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
The JOLTS report is showing that there were 5.624 million job openings in June. That’s a touch higher than the 5.500 million posted in May. Hires and separations came in at 5.1 million and 4.9 million, respectively. The quits rate was 2.0% and the layoffs and discharges rate was 1.1%.
EIA Petroleum Status Report
Crude oil for the week of 8/5 is up 1.1 million barrels. Gasoline is down 2.8 million barrels, and distillates are down 2.0 million barrels.
Treasury auctions
There will be a 10-year treasury note auction at 1:00 PM.
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- Labor Market Conditions Index
- Treasury auctions
Tuesday:
- Productivity and Costs
- Treasury auctions
Wednesday:
- Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
- Treasury auctions
Thursday:
- Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
- Import and Export Prices
Friday:
- Retail Sales
- Producer Price Index – Final Demand
- Consumer Sentiment
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/2b3DCjV
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