Welcome to the TMS current mortgage rates blog. There’s some economic data out today, but first, your daily mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Where are mortgage rates going?
Mortgage rates aren’t doing a whole lot this week as we slowly march toward Friday’s non-farm payrolls report. Most of the action before Friday is happening overseas, but as we’ve seen in the past couple months, there is certainly a chance for those events to ripple across the pond into domestic markets.
Thoughts on the remaining Fed meetings
Checking in with everyone’s favorite fedwatching tool, courtesy of the CME Group. Ever since the Brexit vote, the futures have given the September and November meetings very little chance of a rate hike. Right now they are at 18.0% and 19.3%, respectively. Dallas Fed President Rob Kaplan and New York Fed President William Dudley both made remarks recently about how September is still “very much on the table”, but the markets aren’t buying it, and neither am I. I would bet a large sum of money that they don’t hike in September.
We’re only six weeks away from that meeting, which is not a lot of time at all to turn the whole economy around. The employment situation reports for August and September would have to be stellar, along with every other economic report. It’s a long shot, and I have a hard time believing that Kaplan and Dudley are sincere with their remarks. If you ask me, their statements are just more of the same from a Fed that wishes to constantly pretend we’re on the cusp of a higher interest rate economy.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Looking to November, it’s strange to me that this meeting has more than a 0% chance of a rate hike. The meeting takes place on November 1st and 2nd, a mere week before the Presidential Election. The only way a rate hike would take place is if Hilary Clinton takes a serious nosedive in the polls and Janet Yellen, knowing she is about to get fired by The Donald, begins to go mad and impulsively rallies the rate hike troops for one last hurrah.
December is clearly the only meeting that doesn’t dwell in the realm of rate hike fantasy. With just over a 40% chance, there is a definite possibility that it could happen. I’m still skeptical, and I’d still bet against it, but I can’t completely write it off.
What does this mean for me?
Mortgage rates are currently at very low levels. Now is a great time to purchase a home or refinance your mortgage. All it takes is a quick phone call to get started.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Today’s economic data:
ADP Employment Report
The ADP employment report is showing that the economy added 179,000 private sector jobs in July. That’s slightly above last month’s estimate of 172,000 and is basically in line with what economists are predicting for Friday’s employment situation report.
ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
The ISM composite index came in at a strong 55.5 for July. That’s good news for the manufacturing sector.
Miscellanea:
- Japanese Government Bonds (JGB) had their biggest 3-day drop in over 3 years.
- The Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates to an all-time low of 1.5%.
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- PMI Manufacturing Index
- ISM Manufacturing Index
Tuesday:
- Personal Income and Outlays
Wednesday:
- ADP Employment Report
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
Thursday:
- Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
- Factory Orders
Friday:
- Nonfarm Payrolls
- International Trade
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/2ai54Ot
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