Welcome to the TMS current mortgage rates blog. There’s some economic data out today, but first, your daily mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Where are mortgage rates going?
Freddie Mac PMMS has rates lower this week
Last Friday GDP came in below expectations and pushed mortgage rates lower. There wasn’t much data out this week and so mortgage rates basically hung around where they were after the drop on Friday.
The Freddie Mac Private Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS) is showing that the average rate on a 30-year fixed rate mortgage is now 3.43% (0.5 points); the average rate on a 15-year fixed rate mortgage is 2.74% (0.5 points); and the average rate on a 5-year ARM is 2.73% (0.5 points).
Here is what Chief Economist at Freddie Mac Sean Becketti had to say about the drop in mortgage rates this week:
“Treasury yields fell last week following both the FOMC’s meeting and a disappointing advance estimate for second quarter GDP. Mortgage rates, which had moved up 7 basis points over the past three weeks, responded by erasing most of those gains, falling 5 basis points to 3.43 percent this week for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage. Mortgage rates have been below 3.5 percent every week since June 30. Borrowers are taking advantage of these low rates by refinancing. The latest Weekly Applications Survey results from the Mortgage Bankers Association show refinance activity up 55 percent since last year.”
U.S. 10-year yield
The yield on the U.S. 10-year treasury note is moving lower this morning. It started the day at 1.55% and has since moved five basis points lower to 1.50%. They started the week slightly under 1.50% and edged up to over 1.57% on Tuesday. Mortgage rates have a tendency to follow in the footsteps of the 10-year yield, so if the trend holds we could see lower rates at the end of the day.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Fed Fund Futures
The CME Group’s fedwatching tool is the hands down the best way to check in with the markets and find out their feelings on any rate hikes at upcoming Federal Reserve meetings. Since yesterday, the markets have softened their position slightly, with all of the meetings getting their odds of a rate hike down about 4%. September now has a 12.0% chance, but even that number is generous if you ask me. The November meeting now stands with a 13.6% chance, but that meeting hasn’t had a true shot in months. The decision would come with less than a week before the Presidential Election. The economy would have to be absolutely booming for Fed officials to make a move like that. They claim that they are outside of politics, but we know from the decision to hold off before the Brexit vote that they take into consideration upcoming political events.
What does this mean for me?
Mortgage rates are just over 10 basis points from all-time lows. That means that right now is the perfect time to refinance your current mortgage or purchase a home. All it takes is one phone call to get started.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Today’s economic data:
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
New claims for the week of 7/30 came in at 269,000 this morning. That’s slightly above both the consensus and the prior reading. The 4-week moving average dropped a smidgen down from 256,500 to 265,250.
Factory Orders
Factory orders came in down 1.5% in June. That’s pretty much in line with the consensus for -1.8%.
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- PMI Manufacturing Index
- ISM Manufacturing Index
Tuesday:
- Personal Income and Outlays
Wednesday:
- ADP Employment Report
- ISM Non-Manufacturing Index
Thursday:
- Weekly Initial Jobless Claims
- Factory Orders
Friday:
- Nonfarm Payrolls
- International Trade
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/2awTHxh
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