Welcome to the TMS current mortgage rates blog. There’s some economic data out today, but first, your daily mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Where are mortgage rates going?
Not much was happening this morning in the world of mortgage rates until New York Fed President William Dudley opened his mouth during an interview with Fox Business News, claiming that a rate hike in September “is possible.” He went on to say that “We are edging closer towards the point in time when it will be appropriate to raise rates further.” I understand that he is a Federal Reserve President and a voting member of the FOMC, but the fact that these kind of fluff comments influence financial market participants to readjust their positions is somewhat baffling. After all, it seems that in the months preceding nearly any rate hike, we get a Fed official who comes out and says that a “rate hike is possible.”
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
What does that even mean? Does it mean that it’s likely? Judging from the Fed Fund futures, which gives September a 12% chance of a rate hike, one would think that it will almost certainly not happen. Now, it’s not like his comments had a huge effect on the markets (treasury yields only rose a few basis points), but it’s just amazing how we go through the same old song-and-dance routine every single Fed meeting. Maybe I’m jaded because I have to blog about these events on an almost daily basis and I would thoroughly enjoy some original thought from an Fed official, but when they come out and tout these trite party lines, it gets to me. I think it’s because I have a sneaking suspicion that behind the scenes they’re having conversations that aren’t sugar coated for the media. Alas, I’ll probably never know.
What does this mean for me?
Mortgage rates are moving slightly higher this morning, but all things considered, they’re at very low levels. If you’re considering refinancing your current mortgage or you are on the hunt for a house, you’ve picked a great time to do so. I do think that you’re better off acting sooner rather than later.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Today’s economic data:
Consumer Price Index is soft
The consumer price report isn’t giving us any strong readings this morning. Month over month, it’s unchanged; year over year, it’s up 0.8%. CPI less food and energy, month over month, is at 0.1%; year over year, it’s at 2.2%.
Housing Starts are strong
Housing starts came in at 1.211 million for July. Housing permits came in at 1.152 million. Last month’s readings for starts and permits were 1.189 million and 1.153 million, respectively. That means that housing starts saw a decent improvement in July, while permits remained basically unchanged. Starts for single-family homes rose by 0.5%, which means that there is steady strength at the moment, but the fact that permits are flat could signal that there is a downturn in construction on the horizon.
Industrial Production is solid
According to the industrial production report, manufacturing had a decent July. Month over month, production rose 0.7%. That’s one tenth higher than the previous reading, and four tenths higher than expected. All of this pushed the capacity utilization rate a half point higher to 75.9%.
Fedspeak
Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart is set to speak today at 12:30pm at the Rotary Club in Knoxville, Tennessee.
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- Empire State Manufacturing
Tuesday:
- Consumer Price Index
- Housing Starts
- Industrial Production
- Fedspeak
Wednesday:
- MBA Mortgage Applications
- Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
- Fedspeak
- FOMC Minutes
Thursday:
- Jobless Claims
- Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook
- Consumer Comfort Index
- Fedspeak
Friday:
- Nothing
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/2bCL2zi
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