Current Mortgage Rates for Monday, August 15, 2016

“Mortgage Rates Little Changed.”  That’s the headline from last week’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey from Freddie Mac.  It’s pithy and true.  The average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage ticked up from 3.43% to 3.45% (with 0.5 points).  For nearly two months, the survey results have shown rates between 3.41-3.48%.  And while this is great for anyone who is looking for a mortgage, it’s not good for someone who writes a blog about mortgage rates because there is painfully little to discuss.

The long and short of the situation is this: the all-time low reading from the Freddie Mac PMMS was 3.31% in 2012.  Recent strong domestic economic data has, in theory, given the hawks on the Fed more ammo to hike rates.  Right now the Fed Fund futures market is showing about a 50% implied probability of a hike by the end of the year.

If I were looking for a mortgage, I’d try to move sooner rather than later, but it seems fairly unlikely we see rates take a significant change in direction in the immediate future.

Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.

Today’s economic data:

Today’s economic releases are of pretty marginal importance:

• The Empire State Manufacturing Survey for August came in at -4.21, worse than the consensus expectation of 2.50, and down from July’s reading of 0.55.  Readings above zero show growth while readings below zero show contraction.  The manufacturing indices tend to be volatile, and manufacturing has been scuffling along for a long time now, so this reading is hardly shocking.
• On the other hand, housing continues to do well.  The housing market index for August came in at 60, up from 59 in July.  The housing market index is an average of a number of other housing indices, but basically it attempts to gauge the general housing outlook.  Readings above 50 are good, and readings below 50 are bad.

None of this appears to be having any immediate impact on the markets.

The week that was:

Last week was unremarkable.  July’s retail sales numbers were weak, and the producer price index for July showed few signs of inflation.  I think the takeaway is that a rate hike at the September Fed meeting is unlikely, but we will get one more employment report before that meeting occurs.  Whether or not you believe that a rate hike is warranted (I don’t, but I’m not consulted on such matters), the hawks on the Fed have been agitating for a hike for a long time.  Another strong employment report could give them a reason to make the move in September.  Its a possibility to be aware of.

The rate outlook:

The usual fluctuations aside, nothing would indicate that we will see any real changes in rates this week.  It’s a great time to get a mortgage.

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from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/2bk3CYm