Welcome to the TMS current mortgage rates blog. There’s some economic data out today, but first, your daily mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Where are mortgage rates going?
Yesterday, we got some typical hawkish fedspeak that pushed treasury yields higher and caused all of the major U.S. market indexes to close in the negative. For those who missed it, I’m referring to Fed Presidents Dennis Lockhart and William Dudley, who both made remarks on Tuesday about a September rate hike being very much on the table.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Lockhart went so far as to say that two rate hikes are possible in 2016. As I stated yesterday, I don’t believe that the Fed will be raising rates in September. The last GDP reading came in very poor and inflation is still running south of the Fed’s target. On the surface, the jobs reports seem to point to strength in the labor market, but if you dig deeper into the report I think there is a case to be made that the types of jobs being added bring down the overall quality of the reports.
Economic data aside, the September meeting precedes the Presidential Election by a little over a month. That’s not much time, and it would be a significant risk for sitting Fed Chair Janet Yellen to take. You have to give it to the Fed, though, they really know how to rally the troops before one their meetings.
At the beginning of the week, the Fed Fund futures had the chances of a rate hike happening in September at 12.0%. Right now, it’s at 18.0%. That’s the highest it’s been in over a month. Still, an 18.0% chance of something happening is not the kind of odds I like to bet on. If you ask me, December remains the only real candidate for a rate hike in 2016. It’s certainly not guaranteed. There’s a lot that can happen between now and then, and I think the Fed Fund futures get the odds right with about a 50/50 chance.
The release of the FOMC’s minutes from the July meeting has the potential to influence mortgage rates today. That will happen at 2pm today, and I would say that there is more of a threat toward rates moving higher than lower. Per usual, everyone and their mother will be scouring every inch of the minutes for hidden clues.
What does this mean for me?
There has been some give and take with mortgage rates this week, and ultimately, they’re a little higher than this time last week. However, historically speaking, they are still at very low levels. That means that right now is a great time to refinance your current mortgage or purchase a home.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Today’s economic data:
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
Inflation data is coming in soft this morning in Atlanta, at 1.8% year over year. That’s according to data out from the Atlanta Fed.
EIA Petroleum Status Report
- Crude oil rose 1.1 million barrels
- Gasoline fell 2.8 million barrels
- Distillates dropped 2.0 million barrels
Fedspeak
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard is going to speak today at 1pm.
FOMC Minutes
The minutes from the July FOMC meeting will be released today at 2pm.
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- Empire State Manufacturing
Tuesday:
- Consumer Price Index
- Housing Starts
- Industrial Production
- Fedspeak
Wednesday:
- Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
- Fedspeak
- FOMC Minutes
Thursday:
- Jobless Claims
- Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook
- Consumer Comfort Index
- Fedspeak
Friday:
- Nothing
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/2bAZaId
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