Welcome to the TMS current mortgage rates blog. There’s some economic data out today, but first, your daily mortgage rate forecast/advice.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Where are mortgage rates going?
Freddie Mac has rates down
According to the PMMS, the mortgage rates roller coaster took another dip this week, but it’s wasn’t the type of face-distorting free fall you might experience on the Kingda Ka. It was more like the modest, unimpressive drop you might find on one of those dragon kiddie roller coasters. In fact, a children’s ride is an apt metaphor for mortgage rates the past couple of months. They’ve gone up and down a half dozen times, but in the end, we’re left largely unamused. This trend may well continue, but as we gear up for the September Fed meeting, there is always the potential for things to get interesting.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Already this week we’ve got two Fed officials saying that a September rate hike is firmly on the table. Should we believe them? I have my reservations. And then we have the Fed minutes from the July meeting, which no one seems to know quite how to feel about. The minutes showed that the FOMC was split on whether or not a rate hike in the near-term would be necessary. Waiting for more data has been the Fed’s modus operandi for some time now and there seems to be no reason for them to wait it out a little longer. They’ve been getting jobs numbers that they want, but inflation data has still been soft.
Here is what chief economist at Freddie Mac Sean Becketti said about this week in mortgage rates:
“Ahead of the release of the FOMC minutes for July, 10-year Treasury yields were little changed from the prior week. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell 2 basis points to 3.43 percent this week, erasing last week’s uptick. For eight consecutive weeks mortgage rates have ranged between 3.41 and 3.48 percent. Inflation is not adding any upward pressure on interest rates as the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the Consumer Price Index was unchanged in July.”
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
How have the Fed Fund futures been taking all of this news in? Well, they have been hard to budge recently. The current odds for a rate hike in September, November, and December are 18.0%, 23.1%, and 52.4%, respectively.
What does this mean for me?
There has been some give and take with mortgage rates this week, and ultimately, they’re a little higher than this time last week. However, historically speaking, they are still at very low levels. That means that right now is a great time to refinance your current mortgage or purchase a home.
Click here to get today’s latest mortgage rates.
Today’s economic data:
Jobless claims remain low
Jobless claims fell 4,000 for the week of 8/13 to 262,000. That’s 10,000 higher than the same sample period in July, but still at a level that is considered historically low.
Philadelphia Fed business outlook paints an ugly picture
The Philly Fed business outlook came right in line with expectations with a headline reading of 2.0. Unfortunately, the details of the report give some reason for concern. New orders, backlog orders, employment, inventories, and the workweek are all deep in the negative.
Consumer comfort index
The consumer comfort index kicked back into gear this week with a headline reading of 43.6. That’s up almost 2 points from the previous reading of 41.8.
Fedspeak
New York Fed President William Dudley is set to speak today at 10am.
Notable events this week:
Monday:
- Empire State Manufacturing
Tuesday:
- Consumer Price Index
- Housing Starts
- Industrial Production
- Fedspeak
Wednesday:
- Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
- EIA Petroleum Status Report
- Fedspeak
- FOMC Minutes
Thursday:
- Jobless Claims
- Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook
- Consumer Comfort Index
- Fedspeak
Friday:
- Nothing
from Total Mortgage Underwritings Blog http://ift.tt/2bi5BhL
No comments:
Post a Comment